- Time：2023/3/30 Posted：Shenzhen RSD International Freight Forwarding Co., Ltd
- From the perspective of demand, due to adverse factors such as the tightening of global monetary liquidity caused by the acceleration of US dollar interest rate hikes, the decline in consumer demand and expenditure caused by high inflation in Europe and the United States, high inventory of goods, and reduced import demand in Europe and the United States, container transportation demand may continue to be sluggish. However, the recent rebound in the US consumer information index and the recovery of China's exports of small household appliances may narrow the decline in demand.
From the perspective of supply, congestion at overseas ports will be further alleviated, and the efficiency of ship turnover is expected to further improve. The delivery speed of transportation capacity in the fourth quarter may increase, and the market is facing significant oversupply pressure.
However, at present, major liner companies are beginning to contemplate a new round of suspension measures, and the effective capacity growth of the market is relatively controllable. At the same time, the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the rise in global energy prices have also brought many uncertainties to the future market trend. Overall, in the fourth quarter of the year, the container industry is still in the "ebb" stage, with upward expectations still lacking strong support. The overall downward pressure on maritime freight rates may have narrowed.
From the perspective of shipping companies, it is necessary to prepare adequately for the impact of the "ebb tide" in the container industry. Ship investment can be more cautious, better grasp the cyclical impact of current ship value and market freight rates, and choose a better investment opportunity; Pay attention to new changes such as current RCEP agreements, regional trade, express shipping, and cold chain, better approach cargo owners, and enhance "end-to-end" comprehensive supply chain service capabilities and competitive advantages; Comply with the current trend of port resource integration, strengthen the integrated development with ports, and promote the coordinated development of trunk and branch branches. At the same time, we will increase the transformation and upgrading of business digitalization and improve our platform based management capabilities.
From the perspective of cargo owners, we should pay close attention to changes in the overseas consumption structure and strive for more export orders; Properly control the rising cost of raw materials, effectively control the inventory cost of finished products, promote the upgrading and technological innovation of export products, and increase the added value of goods exports; Pay close attention to national foreign trade promotion policy support and integrate into the cross-border e-commerce development model.
From the perspective of freight forwarders, it is necessary to control the cost of capital, improve their overall logistics service capabilities, and prevent supply chain crises that may be caused by capital chain fractures.
